10 Patriots thoughts on Drake Maye, Mike Vrabel, NFL playoff opponents and more at the bye week

Welcome to the Friday Five bye-week edition Every week during the NFL regular season I ve dropped five Patriots-related thoughts on Friday to recap the week that was in Foxboro and look ahead to the Pats next kickoff Since the Patriots are off this Sunday we ve doubled the fun and pushed this column back two days Ready set football The Pats majority dangerous playoff opponent is Buffalo but it s close The Texans defense is the preponderance fearsome unit offense defense or special teams of any in the AFC Houston ranks first in points allowed and defensive EPA Expected Points Added The Texans are second by the opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA on defense and they are are littered with Pro Bowl-caliber talents on both sides of the ball Yet I can t slot them ahead of the Bills It comes down to this if you re the Patriots do you have more confidence in Drake Maye leading a game-winning final drive versus the Texans defense or your defense stopping Josh Allen in the same scenario I m taking Maye Allen is a wrecking ball a force and the reigning MVP for two more months His box-score stats belie what s been a better season on tape especially considering his lack of weapons and at times poor luck with turnovers Buffalo has problems sure But I don t expect the Patriots to be able to exploit their run defense which means any matchup should be in a shootout if when the Bills come to Foxboro There are sparse quarterbacks I would fear in a shoot-out quite like Allen especially after he s carried Buffalo to the divisional round five years running Least dangerous playoff opponent Jacksonville Tony Boselli Fred Taylor Jimmy Smith and Mark Brunell aren t walking through that door Even if they were the Pats might beat them anyway You think Trevor Lawrence is going to win a playoff meeting in Foxboro C mon Of note the Steelers whose playoff odds are according to ESPN have been excluded The Ravens Chargers Chiefs and Texans all boast better quarterbacks while the Colts own a better more talented roster than Jacksonville giving them an edge here among AFC contenders Rivalry brewing Back to the Bills The Pats have not had a true rival since Peyton Manning retired a sad drought preceded by salty stretches of real rivalry Starting in the Steelers Jets Colts Ravens Broncos all took turns poking the bear that was the dynasty-era Patriots and occasionally drew blood For a time with each of those franchises competitive hate flowed both methods That feels like eons ago But mark it down the next rivalry is building The Patriots are coming for the AFC East crown which has belonged to the Bills since The year before the Pats held off Allen in a primetime late-December win to clinch what remains their bulk latest division title Allen was only a second-year participant then but veterans like Matthew Slater admitted then they could hear Buffalo s footsteps coming because of their quarterback s evolution sharp coaching and a well-rounded roster Sound familiar The Pats have closed the gap this year behind Maye and Mike Vrabel and are positioned to battle the Bills for years to come Maye and Allen may be friendly on a personal level but playing twice a year will breed the type of familiarity that should breed contempt for their teams Ding ding Enough schedule talk The Patriots schedule is what it is It s been a known cakewalk for months One of the easiest in the modern era The schedule does not need to be cited emphasized or excused anymore because ultimately it s just context and significant context at that but nothing more The driving forces behind the Patriots -game win streak and - record are the Patriots themselves Period Good players great coaching and an organizational edge not known here for more than a half-decade The simplest way to understand how the schedule matters is to think of the season as a test drive A group s schedule shapes the road Is it straight and flat Or narrow craggy and full of danger Either way someone has to gas up the car drive it confront every turn and keep the car from crashing The best playoff teams are often the ones with the best drivers read quarterbacks and those who finish the regular season with the fewest scratches and dents read healthiest rosters New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye in the huddle during the second half of an NFL battle against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday Oct in Foxboro The Patriots have now won straight games AP Photo Greg M Cooper Anyway dents are coming for the Patriots next year when their road will get much rockier and all of this schedule conversation will inevitably subside Here s why Behold the Patriots opponents at home Bills Broncos Packers Raiders Dolphins Vikings Jets and an AFC North unit TBD And on the road Bills Bears Lions Chiefs Chargers Dolphins Jets an AFC South organization and NFC West squad both TBD Assuming the Patriots finish in first place their next schedule could include up to games versus playoff teams and should feature at least eight That s because the NFL s scheduling formula is working exactly as it was intended The Patriots were a last-place crew last year and faced a cushy last-place schedule this season Next year it will be a winding dangerous road back to the playoffs The reasons to run Counting on the Patriots run meeting as an efficient reliable part of their offense feels like a lost cause The Pats rank near the bottom of the league by rushing success rate yards per carry EPA DVOA all of the the majority telling metrics They can nonetheless get by with an inefficient run encounter as several high-powered offenses do if they hit enough explosive runs that offset their down-to-down inefficiency and if they convert in short-yardage Bad news the Pats stink in short-yardage too converting barely half the time So why do they continue to run TreVeyon Henderson just won AFC Rookie of the Month because the threat of him developing a long touchdown run with speed keeps defenses honest Since the start of November Henderson is among the NFL leaders in yards after contact and rushing yards over expected The run contest is a bicycle for a devastating play-action passing attack According to Pro Football Focus Maye has completed of his passes for yards seven touchdowns and zero interceptions off play-action His yards per attempt average is a full yard higher than his season-long average on all throws His passer rating is a sparkling Effective play-action does not require an effective run contest but it does require an offense committed to running the ball so that its play fakes must be respected So the next time you wonder why Josh McDaniels is insisting on what looks like running into a brick wall here you go Vrabel s throwback identity In all the Super Bowls and years that followed it s easy to forget the Patriots founded their dynasty on a punch to the mouth Re-watch certain clips of their Super Bowl XXXVI win over the Rams during that season and specific of those hits will strike you as downright illegal Because by nowadays s rules they are That type of physicality keyed their first title and ensuing wins over their top AFC challenger the Colts in the playoffs of the and seasons Vrabel is running a distinctly different campaign than Bill Belichick did then but there are a scarce non-negotiable ingredients to building a winning crew Physicality is one of them and meager coaches if any know that better than Vrabel Last week such physicality highlighted by Christian Elliss crushing sideline blow of Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart pushed the Pats into their bye week with a th straight win Their defensive meeting plan did not revolve around a set of schemes or concepts Just brute physicality It worked Load management Defensive captain Robert Spillane played a season-low defensive snaps last Monday Outside linebacker Harold Landry saw Stefon Diggs has topped offensive snaps just twice this year The Patriots have been playing the long contest with their veterans fitness this season and it s the right move The franchise has not finished a season strong since and the best version of this crew inevitably was going to necessitate productive years from its older players That includes Diggs Landry and -year-old right tackle Morgan Moses who has been on a pitch count since training camp Patriots linebacker Harold Landry runs off the field after an NFL conquest over the Tennessee Titans AP Photo George Walker IV The Pats have lost a minimal starters to serious injury of late including left tackle Will Campbell and defensive tackle Milton Williams landing on IR But the unit seems to have staved off the injury bug as long as practicable and has reaped those rewards Related Articles Patriots notebook Bill Belichick Robert Kraft named finalists for hall of fame Patriots-Giants film review How Drake Maye led a dominant effort on Monday Night Football Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel defends Christian Elliss big hits Mike Vrabel s message to Patriots as they go into late bye week Callahan Drake Maye Patriots send a message to the NFL with Monday night blowout Can you believe this In the last years can you name a college wide receiver the Patriots have drafted with more career NFL touchdowns than Kayshon Boutte No you can t Because that competitor doesn t exist Boutte s nine touchdowns are the majority of among all drafted Patriots wide receivers dating back to Deion Branch who was a second-round pick in Brandon Tate a third-rounder from ranks second with seven This list of class excludes Julian Edelman another draft pick who played quarterback in college It s both a credit to Boutte s rapid improvement and a clear reflection of the Patriots worst draft failures since Branch And get this Branch was drafted before Boutte was even born Kraft Belichick reunion Holy awkwardness Batman If Robert Kraft and Bill Belichick receive votes from of the Hall of Fame committee when the committee reconvenes in February to elect the Hall s class they will be inducted together next summer Their relationship froze over two years ago at the end of Belichick s tenure and went ice cold in the ensuing months over The Dynasty documentary Kraft s comments about firing Belichick on a podcast and the coach s ongoing shots at his former association through the media Belichick presumably will be in attendance if elected despite coaching at North Carolina next summer though it s hard to see him making time for his former boss that weekend Anyway consider booking your flights and buying tickets to the ceremony and the Hall of Fame Challenge now by the way The Patriots have not played in the league s annual preseason opener since and specific years the league schedules the former teams of its newest inductees to play outside Canton during Hall of Fame weekend The one downside training camp would start much earlier for the Patriots Quote of the Week That we re not done We re not satisfied I think champions are never satisfied I think you can appreciate where you are but at the same time never be satisfied or complacent The fine line between rest and recovery and just being sedentary So there s a fine line of what we have to do to be able to come back in here understand that just because you have a bye that doesn t mean you re guaranteed selected accomplishment the next week in this league Teams are - coming off a bye this year so obviously the bye doesn t guarantee anything other than we should get particular guys back that we didn t have last night Mike Vrabel on his message to the Patriots before current for their bye week